First, let’s note that John McCain could win. It doesn’t look likely, and if the polls are correct it’s 98 percent impossible. But he could, and if he does, I’ll be as surprised as anyone and be thrust into rethinking a lot of assumptions I’m now carrying around. And with that out of the way, my thoughts on Election Eve.

Barack Obama’s election as 44th president of the United States will be seen different ways by different people. For blacks, obviously, it will be the top of the summit of the Civil Rights Movement. Racism is alive and well, of course (one need only look at eastern Kentucky’s primary numbers from the Hillary Clinton-Obama contest to see it), but tomorrow will be the crowning moment for our nation’s largest minority group. And, after all that America put these people’s parents and grandparents and ancestors through, they deserve it. For liberals, it may be (mistakenly) seen as an endorsement of their economic policy views, as a sign that mainstream America is coming around to the idea of a more powerful proactive government and that they’ve spoken with loud voice an “Amen!” to the stereotypical rallying cry of “the rich should pay their fair share.” For conservatives, it will be seen (rightly) as a referendum on the Bush administration and (wrongly) as the achievement of personality over policy.

This is a complex country… but the truth behind a Barack Obama victory, in my eyes, is so simple that it’s a bit embarrassing.

Hope.

It’s plastered on billboards and printed on shirts, and it sounds absolutely ridiculous. Truth is, though, that Americans like to hope: It’s why they’ve so often (though not this year) voted for tax policies that favor the wealthy — they hope, and somewhere deep down believe, that one day they’ll be the wealthy. It’s why they “cling” to religion in the face of science and rationalism and strange looks from their co-workers. It’s why they haven’t trusted Washington in a long time, and it’s why so many are willing to go out on a limb — in the face of very little strong evidence — for a guy whose name is hard to spell and whose resume is so thin.

The conventional wisdom is that the economy sunk John McCain, that it would have been impossible for a Republican, any Republican, to win this year. But that’s more cop-out that commentary; it explains away Hope, a notion that makes cynics gag (and take it from me, writers and journalists and pundit are, to a person, cynics). But think back to 2004: The country thought Bush had done a poor job with the war, and our economy was already starting to tilt. Karl Rove and cynical politics, however, won out… not because the strategy was so great, but because Kerry’s campaign bought into it and tried to defend against it.

Obama, however, doesn’t accept the terms of the debate. He’s lofty, heady, ethereal, syrupy… all adjectives that can be heard thrown at him day in and day out on talk radio. But what everyone is missing — everyone except Obama and his campaign advisers — is that he exudes Hope, and Hope is America.

JFK wasn’t elected because he had great tax policies — and he’s not remembered as transcendent because of his mistakes managing the Vietnam war. Reagan wasn’t elected because of his grand schemes, either, though conservatives like to remember it that way. These two men saw America’s best days ahead, and they weren’t afraid to get a little emotional (and a little cheesy) when painting that picture to voters. Sure, people are hurting, and plenty (myself included) are into the notion of getting a tax cut while the wealthier pay a little more… good policy or bad, at my materialistic core I’m just waiting for my check to show up. But average people don’t contribute some $350 million to a politician in hopes of getting a slight tax cut… if it were about that, they’d have booted Bush in 2004, saving our country hundreds of billions of dollars by electing a president who’d end the Long War.

Whether you believe him or not, Barack Obama is selling Hope. It’s why he always follows his criticisms of McCain, and his crowds’ subsequent boos, with “don’t boo, just vote!” It’s why he’s willing to try, as best he can, to explain to Joe the Plumber why his tax plan is supposedly better (I imagine McCain saying to a Marvin the Liberal Librarian, “My friend, we’ll just have to disagree” and moving on down the street). It’s why, in an interview tonight on ESPN, he told football fans that “no matter whether you vote for Senator McCain (not “my opponent”) or myself (Obama last?), this is an important election and your voice should be heard.”

“But!” you protest. “He’s just another slick Chicago pol! He’d do anything to win! He’s just like all the others!” And yeah, maybe you’re right. As a whole, though, Americans deep down are starting to tire of that notion. They still speak in sarcasm at work and with friends — it’s the language of the day, the only way to show that you’re cool. Somewhere in our souls, however, we’re getting tired of being cold.

Hope isn’t cool. In fact, it’s sort of dorky. But it’s making a comeback, and consequently it’s going to make history on Tuesday night.

Tags: Barack Obama, Election Day, John McCain, the death of cynicism

This entry was posted on Monday, November 3rd, 2008 at 8.36 pm and is filed under politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.