Earlier this election cycle, John McCain’s campaign decided to go increasingly negative. Ads were cut that — instead of first challenging the man’s policy ideas or even his qualifications — attempted to make a mockery of Barack Obama’s “celebrity.” (These, notably, were followed by Sarah “Barracuda” Palin’s emergence from relative obscurity as a bona fide Republican celebrity.)

Rest of post and discussion after the jump.

This didn’t work… McCain got little bounce out of these ads, though he did manage to pull the previously positive Obama into the gutter as well. We heard less and less about these men’s actual policies, more and more about how many houses John McCain owns, Obama’s silly slip on keeping one’s tires appropriately pressurized, etc.

Meanwhile, the subprime mortgage crisis pulled all of Wall Street into its own gutter, demolishing middle-class voters’ feelings of security — and, possibly, any hopes of a McCain win along with it. It’s common knowledge that Republicans win on national security, Democrats win on economy (we won’t get into why this is, or whether it’s fitting).

Your 401(k)’s interest is definitely not compounding right now, but the negativism is. Camp McCain has decided to work harder at linking Obama to a radical from a generation ago (the links are weak, BTW); Camp Obama, in response, is working hard at reigniting a generation-ago scandal McCain was caught up in (one that does bear some relation to the housing-and-finance mess we’re in, but which is more stale than Starbucks’ coffee).

Read my lips: This is going to be a wash. At a singular moment in our history, voters won’t be going for these strange questions of character, these smears, these things that at the end of the day have absolutely nothing to do with how either of these men will lead our country. We want to quit wasting our money in a neverending war, we want our government to restore economic security to US, the voters, and for once quit worrying so much about special interests.

It’s clear to me — and I’ve posted about this recently — that as it stands now, Barack Obama will win in November. But it’s not over… McCain, at least in theory, could turn this thing around — he could start tomorrow night in Nashville. But it won’t happen if he keeps insisting that the “honorable” thing to do is to “win” (what does this mean?) in Iraq, and that the obviously thoughtful Obama “doesn’t understand” X or Y. He’s got to explain why his economic principles and policies will lead us out of this crisis, how he’s going to help push us toward a more vibrant energy policy and help make America better for my children than it was for me (and for the most part, it’s been pretty good).

I highly doubt — after eight years of GOP dominance in the White House and nearly three decades’ worth of priority placed on making sure the market is “free” instead of (dare I say it?) fundamentally sound — that it’s going to work. But it has the dual qualities of being the only way to win AND the only thing that’s worthy of these men, seeking this office at this time.

Here’s hoping that in tomorrow night’s debate, we hear in grand terms how these two very different men will try to go about reclaiming the American dream. Not one of us a year ago gave a damn about anyone named Ayers or Keating, and we sure don’t want to hear about them now.

P.S.: Let me end with an excerpt from a recent column by Peggy Noonan, former Bush speechwriter turned columnist, whose recent refrain sounds a lot like mine, only with a lot more class. SHE’S not even sure who she’s going to vote for.

The economic crisis brings a new question, unarticulated so far but there, and I know because when I mention it to people they go off like rockets. It is: Do you worry that neither of them is up to it? Up to the job in general? Is either Mr. McCain or Mr. Obama actually up to getting us through this and other challenges? I haven’t heard a single person say, “Yes, my guy is the answer.” A lot of shrugging is going on out there. This is a read not only on the men but on the moment.

The overarching political question: In a time of heightened anxiety, will people inevitably lean toward the older congressional vet, the guy who’s been around forever? Why take a chance on the new, young man at a time of crisis? Wouldn’t that be akin to injecting an unstable element into an unstable environment? There’s a lot at stake.

Or will people have the opposite reaction? I’ve had it, the system has been allowed to corrode and collapse under seven years of Republican stewardship. Throw the bums out. We need change. Obama may not be experienced, but that may help him cut through. He’s not compromised.

The election, still close, still unknowable, may well hinge on whether people conclude A or B.

UPDATE 1 | Oct. 7, 2008: The Washington Post’s Dana Milbank reports on the disturbing mad-mob atmosphere at a recent Palin rally:

Palin’s routine attacks on the media have begun to spill into ugliness. In Clearwater, arriving reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric‘s questions for her “less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media.” At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, “Sit down, boy.” …

“One of his earliest supporters is a man named Bill Ayers,” she said. (“Boooo!” said the crowd.) “And, according to the New York Times, he was a domestic terrorist and part of a group that, quote, ‘launched a campaign of bombings that would target the Pentagon and our U.S. Capitol,’ ” she continued. (“Boooo!” the crowd repeated.)

“Kill him!” proposed one man in the audience. [bolds mine-R]

Tags: Barack Obama, Charles Keating, John McCain, William Ayers

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